An Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Public Opinion Reversal -- Based on a Case Study of the Hu Xinyu Incident
Abstract
With the rapid development of social media, netizens are easily guided by the different information online, which could lead to frequent public opinion reversal. This study focuses on the Hu Xinyu incident that happened on the Chinese internet between 2022 and 2023, which caused an intense discussion followed by several public opinion reversals. This paper provides a case study of the incident by dividing the process into four periods, looking at the specific comments, timeline, and reversals, then analyzing the influencing factors of public opinion reversal present in this incident. After analyzing the case, it is found that information type, intensity, time of release, and information leaders are all important factors in public opinion reversal. A long period of time slot with no information from the officials present would be the time when fake information is most intense, and a reversal is at the largest chance of happening. Based on that, this paper then gives a few suggestions. Authoritative media should keep a calm and timely manner when reporting. They should lead the audience on the right track and increase credibility. On the other hand, we media accounts should refrain from making definitive remarks on news events and assist authoritative media. Media users should look at a variety of information and not take sides easily online to avoid being guided by public opinion and avoid public opinion reversal in general.
References
- Price, V. (1992). Public opinion (Vol. 4). Sage.
- Zhou, X.; Zhao, Y.; Wang, T.; Guo, L.; Niu, W. The influencing factors of public opinion diffusion behavior in public emergencies: Moderate role of government information publishing strategy. In Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Crowd Science and Engineering, Jinan, China, 18–21 October 2019; pp. 63–70.
- Lin, X.; Peng, S.; Zhu, M,; Wu, S.; Gao, L. (2022).Research on the psychological effect of public opinion reversal in network rights protection events. Media Forum (06),22-25.
- People’s Daily. (2023). People’s Sharp Comments The Hu Incident: Present the truth, let the rational return. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1756775143120505996&wfr=spider&for=pc
- Cyberspace Administration of China. (2023). Cyberspace Administration of the CPC Central Committee firmly cracks down on the online use of the “Hu Mouyu incident”to spread rumors, malicious marketing hype. cac.gov.cn. Retrieved March 24, 2023, from http://www.cac.gov.cn/2023-02/12/c_1677842716719266.htm
- Zhu, H., & Hu, B. (2018). Impact of information on public opinion reversal—An agent based model. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 512, 578-587.
- Li, Y., & Wu, X. (2022). Research on the Influencing Factors and Driving Paths of Public Opinions Reversed by Public Emergencies: Clear Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis Based on 30 Cases from 2014 to 2020 (QCA). Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing, 2022, 1–8.
- Fang, S., Zhao, N., Chen, N., Xiong, F., & Yunhui, Y. (2019). Analyzing and predicting network public opinion evolution based on group persuasion force of populism. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 525, 809–824.
- Li, Y., & Wu, X. (2022). Research on the Influencing Factors and Driving Paths of Public Opinions Reversed by Public Emergencies: Clear Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis Based on 30 Cases from 2014 to 2020 (QCA). Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing, 2022, 1–8.
- Pennycook, G., & Rand, D. G. (2021). The Psychology of Fake News. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 25(5), 388–402.
- Chen, T., Wang, Y., Yang, J., & Cong, G. (2020). Modeling Public Opinion Reversal Process with the Considerations of External Intervention Information and Individual Internal Characteristics. Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland), 8(2), 160.